ASX 200 gains 0.95% amid Iran-Israel ceasefire optimism

By: Team Kalkine | Jun 24, 2025 | Read Time : 10 Mins

Image Source : Krish Capital Pty Ltd

Index Update: The Australian stock saw a notable rebound as investors reacted to a tentative ceasefire between Iran and Israel, announced by US President Donald Trump. The S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 80.60 points, or 0.95%, to close at 8,555.50 on Tuesday, moving above its 20-day moving average. Although the index has remained flat over the past five days and is 0.97% below its 52-week high, market sentiment has improved broadly. Eight of eleven sectors ended higher, with materials leading the gains, up 1.98%. However, the energy sector was a notable laggard, falling around 4%, its sharpest drop this week, amid weakening oil prices and global demand concerns.

Macro Update: Oil prices surged to their highest levels since January on Monday after the US launched strikes on Iran and signalled the possibility of further military action, heightening fears of supply disruptions. However, Brent and WTI crude prices slipped 3-7% today after US President Donald Trump announced ceasefire between Israel and Iran, reducing fears of disruptions to oil shipments—especially through the Strait of Hormuz.

Top Market Movers: The top gainers on the ASX were led by HMC Capital Limited (ASX: HMC), which jumped 6.94% to AUD 4.930. Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX: PLS) followed, rising 6.64% to AUD 1.285, while Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: CU6) gained 5.97% to AUD 2.130. On the downside, Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) dropped 6.54% to AUD 24.160, followed by Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) and Viva Energy Group (ASX: VEA), down 6.46% and 3.24%, respectively.

Commodity Update: The U.S. dollar weakened Tuesday as risk appetite improved after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, ending a 12-day conflict. The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose in response. Gold fell 0.83% to USD 3,366.60, silver dipped 0.25% to USD 36.11, while copper increased 0.11% to USD 9,682.30. Brent crude slipped 3.2% to USD 69.20, driven by easing geopolitical tensions.

Our Stance: The Australian market’s rebound reflects a temporary boost to investor confidence following the tentative ceasefire in the Middle East, but the underlying risks remain. While the S&P/ASX 200’s climb above its 20-day moving average is encouraging, persistent global uncertainty—especially rising oil prices and geopolitical instability—could quickly reverse sentiment. Energy stocks took a hit, highlighting sensitivity to commodity volatility. Meanwhile, gains in materials and select growth stocks suggest selective optimism. If oil-driven inflation intensifies, the Reserve Bank of Australia may face pressure to cut rates despite inflation risks. Investors should remain cautious, prioritising diversification and closely watching macro developments.

In its latest session, the S&P/ASX 200 Index saw a gain of 80.60 points, closing at 8,555.50. This rise, marked by a bullish candlestick pattern and supported by solid trading volumes, highlights continued investor enthusiasm and confidence. The index is maintaining its position above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing a bullish outlook. A key resistance level to watch is 8,639.10; a successful breakout above this level could signal a stronger recovery and potentially shift market dynamics positively. Moreover, the index's position above the 21-period SMA on the weekly chart provides a solid foundation for potential long-term gains. To sustain the current upward momentum, the index must clear the 8,639.10 resistance. Achieving this could pave the way for further advances and enhance positive market sentiment in the near term.

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