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Index Update: The Australian share market posted its sharpest one-day fall since April, as investors offloaded major bank stocks amid fears of overvaluation. The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 89.00 points, or 1.02%, to close at 8,668.20 on Monday, retreating from a fresh 52-week high. Financials led the decline, shedding 2.26%, while nine of 11 sectors closed in the red. Energy bucked the trend, emerging as the top performer with a 1.19% gain for the day and 3.55% over the past week.
Macro Update: While Donald Trump struggles to persuade the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, central banks worldwide seem more inclined to act. Bloomberg forecasts that most of the 23 central banks it tracks will ease policy rates in the coming months, with advanced-economy rates expected to drop over 70 basis points in 2025. The shift reflects growing concern that Trump’s aggressive trade measures, aimed at reshaping global commerce, may weigh more heavily on economic growth than on consumer price inflation.
Top Market Movers: Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) surged 11.35% to AUD 1.030, leading the top gainers on Monday. Block, Inc. (ASX: XYZ) followed closely with an 11.18% rise to AUD 122.000, while AMP Limited (ASX: AMP) advanced 9.77% to AUD 1.685. On the losing side, Insignia Financial (ASX: IFL) dropped 5.76% to AUD 3.930. Pinnacle Investment (ASX: PNI) declined 5.25% to AUD 21.820, and Mesoblast (ASX: MSB) slid 4.15% to AUD 2.310.
Commodity Update: The dollar was poised for a second consecutive weekly gain, supported by strong U.S. economic data, suggesting the Federal Reserve may delay further rate cuts. Gold dipped 0.05% to USD 3343.60, while silver rose 0.62% to USD 38.54 and copper advanced 0.51% to USD 9,723.65. Brent crude inched up 0.04% to USD 69.48 amid concerns over potential Iraqi oil supply disruptions and uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy, which is impacting demand.
Our Stance: The Australian share market’s steep drop on Monday, led by a 2.26% fall in financials, reflects rising investor caution amid valuation concerns following recent highs. While energy stocks offered some support, broader sectoral weakness pulled the S&P/ASX 200 down 1.02%. Globally, central banks appear more willing to ease policy, unlike the U.S. Fed, which remains hesitant amid mixed signals from inflation and trade. With global rate expectations shifting and commodities reacting to U.S. policy ambiguity, volatility may persist in the market.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index endured a challenging session, closing down 89.00 points and forming a bearish candlestick pattern amid higher trading volume. Despite this pullback, the index continues to trade above its 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart a critical support level. Notably, key support is identified near 8,420.50, a level closely watched by market participants. Holding above this threshold could help consolidate recent gains and reinforce confidence in the index’s upward trajectory. Additionally, the index’s position above the 21-period SMA on the weekly chart signals the potential for sustained bullish momentum. The alignment of these technical indicators across timeframes highlights the index’s resilience and supports a broadly positive outlook despite short-term volatility.
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