ASX All-Ordinaries Index (.AORD) Market Round-Up

Last week, the benchmark ASX All-Ordinaries Index (.AORD) started on a negative note and witnessed a sharp downside movement on the last day of the week. The index made a low of 7583.10 and settled at 7599.90 with an overall loss of ~1.68 percent for the week ending November 26, 2021. The recent week also started on a slightly negative tone and prices are hovering around 7500 level. On the technical front, prices are trading around the lower band of an ascending channel formation and taking support of the same. On a weekly chart, the leading indicator RSI (14-period) is moved below the mid-point and currently trading at ~48.73 levels, indicating a downtrend. Prices are well placed above the trend-following indicator 50-period SMA which supports a positive stance; however, the 21-period SMA may act as a resistance level for the stock.

Global equities witnessed a sharp sell-off on the last day of the week as concerns mounted over a new Covid variant 'Omicron' which resulted in panic selling by the market participants.

Global Markets Wrap-Up 

Wall Street slumped last week and the two benchmark indices ended in red. The S&P 500 settled at 4594.62 with a loss of ~2.20 percent, while NASDAQ Composite Index settled at 15491.657 with a loss of ~3.52 percent for the week ending November 26, 2021. The new Covid-19 variant coupled with the higher inflation numbers pressurized the market at the higher levels. 

Having understood the US market performance over the past one week, taking cues from major global news, and based on our technical analysis of ASX All-Ordinaries Index (.AORD) for the upcoming week, now let us have a look at the one ASX-listed stock from the technical standpoint. Noted below is our recommendation based on generic insights, entry price, target prices, and stop-loss for Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX: CYL) for the next 2-4 weeks’ duration: -

Catalyst Metals Limited 

Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX: CYL) is a metals and mining company engaged in the exploration and evaluation of Gold. Noted below are the key price indicators for the stock:

Price Action Analysis (on the Weekly Chart)

CYL's prices broke a downward sloping trend line by an upside on October 20, 2021, and since then hovering around the breakout level, indicating the possibility of an upside reversal.  Now the next crucial resistance level for the stock appears at AUD 2.50 and prices may test this level in the short term (2-4 weeks). A further breakout above AUD 2.50 may extend buying in the stock.

Technical Indicators Analysis (On the Weekly Chart)

On the weekly chart, RSI (14-period) is trading at ~59.85 levels, indicating a positive price momentum. The CMP is above the trend-following indicators 21-period SMA and 50-period SMA, further supporting an upward trend.

Financial Summary: 

Summary of the Key Financial Metrics for the past four years for Catalyst Metals Limited is as follows:

General Recommendation:

As per the above-mentioned price action and technical indicators analysis, we can conclude that Catalyst Metals Limited is looking technically well-placed on the chart, and we have a ‘Speculative Buy’ rating on the stock. Investment decision should be made depending on an investor’s appetite for upside potential, risks, and any previous holdings. This recommendation is purely based on technical analysis, and fundamental analysis has not been considered in this report. Summary of our recommendation is as follows:

Upcoming Major Global Economic Events

Market events occur on a day-to-day basis depending on the frequency of the data and generally include update on employment, inflation, GDP, consumer sentiments, etc. Noted below are the upcoming week's major global economic events that could impact the ASX All-Ordinaries Index and listed stocks’ prices:

Investment Related Risks: Based on the technical analysis, the risks are defined as per risk-reward ratio (~0.60:1.00), however, returns are generated within 2-4 weeks’ time frame. This may be looked at by Investors with sufficient risk appetite looking for returns within short investment duration. Investment recommendations provided in this report are solely based on technical parameters, and fundamental performance of the stocks has not been considered in the decision-making process. Other factors which could impact the stock prices include market risks, regulatory risks, interest rates risk, currency risks, and social and political instability risks etc.

Entry Price: For the given recommendation(s), Entry Price is assumed be at or above a certain level. However, a slight deviation in the ‘Entry Price’ can be considered depending upon the upside potential expected and taking into consideration the Target 1 and trailing stop-loss levels indicated. For example: - An Investor can consider entering the stock at or above a certain range (3%-5%) from the Entry Levels recommended depending upon the potential upside expected and difference from the Target 1 and Trailing-Stop Loss Levels indicated for the stock.

Note 1: Investors can consider exiting from the stock if the Target Price mentioned as per the technical analysis has been achieved and subject to the factors discussed above.

Note 2: How to Read the Charts?

The Green colour line reflects the 21-period moving average while the red line indicates the 50-period moving average. SMA helps to identify existing price trend. If the prices are trading above the 21-period and 50-period moving average, then it shows prices are currently trading in a bullish trend.

The Black colour line in the chart’s lower segment reflects the Relative Strength Index (14-Period) which indicates price momentum and signals momentum in trend. A reading of 70 or above suggests overbought status while a reading of 30 or below suggests an oversold status.

The Blue colour bars in the chart’s lower segment show the volume of the stock. The volume is the number of shares that changed hands during a given day. Stocks with high volumes are more liquid than stocks with lesser volume and we consider stocks with greater than or equal to 500,000 volumes as more liquid. Liquidity in stocks helps in easier and faster execution of the order.

The Orange colour lines are the trend lines drawn by connecting two or more price points and used for trend identification purposes. The trend line also acts as a line of support and resistance.

Technical Indicators Defined: -

Support: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find support if they are falling, and downtrend may take a pause backed by demand or buying interest. 

Resistance: A level where-in the stock prices tend to find resistance when they are rising, and uptrend may take a pause due to profit booking or selling interest. 

Stop-loss: It is a level to protect further losses in case of unfavourable movement in the stock prices. 

Risk Reward Ratio: Risk reward ratio is the difference between an entry point to a stop loss and profit level. We suggest ~60% Stop Loss of the Target 1 from the entry point.

A trailing stop-loss is a modification of stop-loss in case of favourable movement in the price to protect the gains. We suggest Investors to Trail the Stop-Loss as per the aforementioned levels if the stock price achieves more than 50% of the Target 1. Investors should consider exiting from the position as per the Trailing Stop-Loss level if the price starts moving downwards after achieving more than 50% of the Target 1.

The reference date for all price data, volumes, technical indicators, support, and resistance levels is November 29, 2021. The reference data in this report has been partly sourced from REFINITIV. 

Abbreviations

CMP: Current Market Price

SMA: Simple Moving Average

AUD: Australian Dollar

RSI: Relative Strength Index 

Note: Trading decisions require a thorough analysis by investors. Technical reports in general chart out metrics that may be assessed by investors before any stock evaluation. The above are illustrative analytical factors used for evaluating the stocks; other parameters can be looked at along with additional risks per se. Past performance is neither an indicator nor a guarantee of future performance.

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